Scenarios evaluated

Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:

Scenario Percent orig. R0 Percent increase from current R0 Effective R0
0 23.10% 0.00% 0.97
1 35.90% 55.40% 1.51
2 48.70% 110.80% 2.04
3 61.60% 166.70% 2.59
4 74.40% 222.10% 3.12
5 87.20% 277.50% 3.66
6 100.00% 332.90% 4.20

Increase contact rate on 2020-06-08 by variable amounts


In the figures below:

A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.

Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).

Scenario 0

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 0.97
  • % of original R0: 23.1
  • % Increase from current: 0

Scenario 1

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 1.51
  • % of original R0: 35.9
  • % Increase from current: 55.4

Scenario 2

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.04
  • % of original R0: 48.7
  • % Increase from current: 110.8

Scenario 3

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 2.59
  • % of original R0: 61.6
  • % Increase from current: 166.7

Scenario 4

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.12
  • % of original R0: 74.4
  • % Increase from current: 222.1

Scenario 5

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 3.66
  • % of original R0: 87.2
  • % Increase from current: 277.5

Scenario 6

Equal to:

  • Effective \(R0\): 4.2
  • % of original R0: 100
  • % Increase from current: 332.9