Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.10% | 0.00% | 0.97 |
| 1 | 35.90% | 55.40% | 1.51 |
| 2 | 48.70% | 110.80% | 2.04 |
| 3 | 61.60% | 166.70% | 2.59 |
| 4 | 74.40% | 222.10% | 3.12 |
| 5 | 87.20% | 277.50% | 3.66 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 332.90% | 4.20 |
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to:
Equal to: