USC Predict COVID19Social Distancing Scenarios
Scenarios evaluated
Here we evaluate the impact of 7 scenarios, each corresponding to a different contact rate. These scenarios can be understood in terms of:
- Effective \(R0\): The effective R0 this % decrease corresponds to
- % of original \(R0\): Percent of the original (pre-social-distancing) \(R0\) the effective \(R0\) this scenario represents
- % Increase from current: Percent increase from current (as of 2020-06-08) level of social distancing / contact rate
| Scenario | Percent orig. R0 | Percent increase from current R0 | Effective R0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.10% | 0.00% | 0.97 |
| 1 | 35.90% | 55.40% | 1.51 |
| 2 | 48.70% | 110.80% | 2.04 |
| 3 | 61.60% | 166.70% | 2.59 |
| 4 | 74.40% | 222.10% | 3.12 |
| 5 | 87.20% | 277.50% | 3.66 |
| 6 | 100.00% | 332.90% | 4.20 |
Increase contact rate on 2020-06-08 by variable amounts
In the figures below:
A dashed line represents healthcare resource capacity limits.
Black dots depict COVID-19 data, with counts from outbreaks in nursing homes removed (for more details see Data).
Scenario 0
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 0.97
- % of original R0: 23.1
- % Increase from current: 0
Scenario 1
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 1.51
- % of original R0: 35.9
- % Increase from current: 55.4
Scenario 2
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.04
- % of original R0: 48.7
- % Increase from current: 110.8
Scenario 3
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 2.59
- % of original R0: 61.6
- % Increase from current: 166.7
Scenario 4
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.12
- % of original R0: 74.4
- % Increase from current: 222.1
Scenario 5
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 3.66
- % of original R0: 87.2
- % Increase from current: 277.5
Scenario 6
Equal to:
- Effective \(R0\): 4.2
- % of original R0: 100
- % Increase from current: 332.9
